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U.S. Economic Exceptionalism

Can the reign continue?

The U.S. has typically been able to shake off its cyclical economic troubles and power forth into a fresh expansion. This time around, it may be more challenging to emerge victorious.

Presenting the 2024 Capital Markets Forecast from Wilmington Trust, a member of the M&T family

Various forces have generally converged to underwrite each successive chapter of the nation's economic vitality—strength that has given U.S. stocks an advantage over other asset classes. But overspending, massive  debt, and high interest rates have put continuing outperformance at risk. We look at those risks, as well as  the opportunities.


A note from our Chief Investment Officer

"Our 2024 Capital Markets Forecast looks at how to best mitigate today the long-term investment risk of a possibly retreating U.S. economy tomorrow. We are optimistic AI may play an outsized role in driving productivity gains that could help the country grow its way out of its current tab and power another wave of leadership for U.S. stocks."

Tony Roth

In an effort to understand whether we are headed for a soft landing or a recession, we explore the building blocks of American exceptionalism both historically—such as growth pillars and innovative capacity—as well as the post-Covid differentiators of economic performance.

Will past be prologue?

We look back and forward to project how we believe the traditional cornerstones of valuations, profitability, currency, and liquidity will fare in 2024.

What's behind U.S. outperformance?

What kind of an impact will the towering U.S. debt and changing demographics have on the U.S.’ enduring exceptional ability to rise above the rest? We look at our long- and short-term market risks and why diversification is so critical right now.

What are the tipping points?

Wilmington Trust hit the road to bring home the 2024 Capital Markets Forecast. If you missed it, catch the highlights of a recent New York City event here, as CNBC Anchor at Large Sue Herera spoke to the team about the unfolding trends in this year’s outlook.  

Meet the Team

Tony Roth, Chief Investment Officer

Tony Roth

Chief Investment Officer

Megan Shue, Head of Investment Strategy

Meghan Shue

Head of Investment Strategy

Luke Tilley, Chief Economist

Luke Tilley

Chief Economist



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Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, Inc. (WTIA), a subsidiary of M&T Bank, is an SEC-registered investment adviser providing investment management services to Wilmington Trust and M&T affiliates and clients. Wilmington Funds are entities separate and apart from Wilmington Trust and M&T Bank.

Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additional information about WTIA is also available on the SEC's website at adviserinfo.sec.gov.

Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, Inc.’s Capital Markets Forecast is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the sale of any financial product or service or as a recommendation or determination that any investment strategy is suitable for a specific investor. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and particular needs. The investments or investment strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for every investor. The material is not designed or intended to provide legal, investment, or other professional advice since such advice always requires consideration of individual circumstances. If legal, investment, or other professional assistance is needed, the services of an attorney or other professional should be sought.

The forecasts presented herein constitute the informed judgments and opinions of Wilmington Trust about likely future capital market performance. Forecasts are subject to a number of assumptions regarding future returns, volatility, and the interrelationship (correlation) of asset classes. Assumptions may vary by asset class. Actual events or results may differ from underlying estimates or assumptions, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

Wilmington Trust is not authorized to and does not provide legal or tax advice. Our advice and recommendations provided to you is illustrative only and subject to the opinions and advice of your own attorney, tax advisor or other professional advisor.

Some investment products may be available only to certain “qualified investors”—that is, investors who meet certain income and/or investable asset thresholds. Any offer will be made only in connection with the delivery of the appropriate offering documents, which are available to prequalified persons upon request.

References to the company names mentioned in this material are merely for explaining the market view and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations of those companies. No assurance can be given as to actual future market results or the results of Wilmington Trust’s investment products and strategies. The estimates contained in this presentation constitute Wilmington Trust’s judgment as of the date of these materials and are subject to change without notice. The information in this presentation has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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Securities listed or mentioned are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be representative of current recommendations or holdings. It should not be assumed that these securities were or will be profitable.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss.

Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.

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