Investing in a Chutes & Ladders Economy
2025 CAPITAL MARKETS FORECAST
Gaming Out Portfolios in 2025
A Note from Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth
“When it comes to the economy and markets in 2025, ‘same old, same old’ doesn’t apply. Our 2025 Capital Markets Forecast explains how the investment environment has changed. We believe that several factors—corporate capital expenditures, tariffs, federal spending, immigration policy, and more—should guide investors on how to position their portfolios.”
Luck alone will not make for a winning investment strategy in 2025.
The year ahead will bring a new set of policies out of Washington—policies that could result in higher highs for the markets, but also the potential for lower lows.
In our outlook, we explore our baseline forecast and the "ladders" that could set the economy on a continued path of above-trend growth and possibly take the equity market to new highs. We also describe potential "chutes" that could weigh on the economy and add volatility to markets. We then map out the upside to our investment strategy, where we continue to find opportunities across asset classes.
Economic Upside
We see three potential ladders that could lift the U.S. economy in 2025: fiscal policies to support increased capital expenditures, productivity gains powered by AI, and higher federal spending by the new administration.
Economic Risks
As exciting as landing on a ladder can be, sliding down a chute can be just as deflating. Tariffs, immigration policy, and the trajectory of federal deficits could, in our view, set the U.S. economy back a few spaces.
Portfolio Positioning
When thinking through a game plan for 2025, remember that not all chutes are the same length and there are risks in both directions. Market and economic analysis are critical when setting an investment strategy.
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Listen to our investment team discuss the 2025 outlook
2025 CAPITAL MARKETS FORECAST RECAP
Join us on January 22 at 12PM ET for a webinar as Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, Chief Economist Luke Tilley, and Head of Investment Strategy Meghan Shue share their thoughts on the investment environment and how investors can strategically position their portfolios in 2025.
This event requires pre‑registration. Once registered, you will receive a confirmation email with the event link and the option of adding this event to your calendar
Meet the Team
Tony Roth
Chief Investment Officer
Meghan Shue
Head of Investment Strategy
Luke Tilley
Chief Economist
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