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Listed REITs are trading at deep discounts—creating a rare entry point for investors. Is now the time to seize the opportunity or should you wait for more certainty? In this episode, CIO Tony Roth talks with Rick Romano, Global Head and CIO of PGIM Real Estate Securities, about the state of commercial real estate—from AI-driven data centers to shifting urban office trends—and why REITs could outperform equities in the coming year.

Investments that focus on alternative assets are subject to increased risk and loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors.

References to specific securities and companies are merely for explaining the market view and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations of those securities or companies and are not intended and should not be relied upon as the basis for anyone to buy, sell, or hold any security.

The opinions of Rick Roman are their own and do not necessarily represent those of Wilmington Trust, M&T Bank or any of its affiliates. Wilmington Trust, M&T Bank and its subsidiaries are not affiliated with PGIM Real Estate Securities.

Tony Roth, Chief Investment Officer

Rick Romano, Global Head & CIO, PGIM Real Estate Securities

 

Roth, Anthony

Welcome back to Wilmington Trust capital considerations. I'm your host, Tony Roth. Today we're gonna dive into the world of real estate with Rick Ramano, Global Head and chief Investment Officer of PGM Real Estate Securities. Rick oversees all global real estate investing at PGM and brings over three decades of experience spanning global strategy of research and portfolio management. In addition to being a CFA charter holder, Rick earned an MBA from NYU and serves as an adjunct professor at Notre Dame. As a veteran in the real estate industry, Rick is a frequent contributor to the financial media and has many times been featured in Barron's, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal. Rick's expertise is especially relevant as the real estate space starts to recover at long last in many areas, in more areas from the pandemic. And we're seeing a pretty interesting shift in the macroeconomic environment as it relates to AI, Data centers, and even return to work, in certain urban spaces. So it's a perfect time to talk to Rick around the overall trends in the commercial real estate space. I want to remind everyone that any reference to specific securities or company names are merely for explaining the market view and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations. We're thrilled to have you here today, Rick, to talk about what's going on in, in commercial real estate.

 

Romano, Rick

Great. Well, thanks for having me today. Really appreciate the opportunity to meet with you.

 

Roth, Anthony

Yeah, absolutely. So I think we should start with the big picture and we've of course have been through the ringer on commercial real estate with the pandemic shutting down many uses from hotels to, of course, notoriously urban center office buildings, and we're five years hence now. We've got I would say a pretty interesting space and a space that is very, heterogeneous from both the geographic standpoint, that is certain areas of the country will do much better than others, pretty much in all cycles, and this cycle is no different. And then also in terms of the different kinds of, in the post pandemic world of commercial real estate, warehouse, industrial et cetera, of course, has done very well now for many years, and now we have the advent of these data centers et cetera. So maybe you could just level set for us and give us an overall take on where you think commercial is as a sector in its journey.

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, I think it's definitely been a long ride since 2020 and the pandemic and we've had a lot of dispersion within REITs in terms of returns and that's a lot different than when you think about real estate going back ten or 15 years ago where most of listed REITs were more focused on, I'd say the more traditional property types, like office, retail,l apartments, and those were a lot more cyclical, a lot more economically sensitive. Now we roll forward to today post COVID, five years since COVID, and we do have a property menu within REITs that definitely is a bit more defensive and definitely is a bit more, you know, sort of secularly growth oriented. So you have areas like healthcare and data centers, e.g. Those have done really well in the past few years and they're really driven by things that again are are less cyclical. So for healthcare, you've got defensive based demand, demographic tailwinds, data centers, you have what's going on in AI and cloud based services. So those areas have, have done well. Since 2022, however, when we started to see interest rates rise, we saw a pretty significant inflation occur after the pandemic.

 

Some of the more cyclical areas have not done well as interest rates have gone up pretty significantly in that period. So areas like office, like retail, apartments have underperformed, have had, you know, some write downs on their private real estate values over the past five years. That's starting to stabilize, that's starting to change. But you've really seen this dichotomy, I think in real estate with winners and losers, certainly by property types.

 

But also geography as we saw some demographic shifts due to COVID where we saw migration to areas like sunbelt markets et cetera. So there's a lot going on and you know we could get into any of those areas in a bit more detail, you know, as we talk a little further.

 

Roth, Anthony

Where do you think the best opportunities are today given where valuations are? So in other words, of course, warehouses have done well for a long time. They're pretty expensive.

 

Of course, data centers are the hot ticket right now, pretty much anywhere I would imagine where there's power just to run them in the country. So, but on the other hand, maybe this is the time to start getting back into multi family where we're starting to see rates come down, which means cap rates are coming down, which is more attractive, and there's certainly a shortage of housing in the country, so maybe the the rental space within the right geographies, which may not be the sunbelt actually any longer, is the place to be. Where where do you think the best opportunities are to deploy assets today?

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, so I think when we're thinking about deploying dollars today, we're looking at two areas and I think you touched on them. So it's mispriced growth, and so in mispriced growth, I would include data centers. So data centers interesting. They they performed really well last year in the REIT space and in 2023, but this year they're one of the the major underperformers in REIT space. So when you look at their earnings growth trajectory for the next few years, you've got a lot of leases that were signed five or ten years ago in the data center space that as they're rolling over today, they're being resigned at really attractive rents. So you do have embedded earnings growth as those leases roll over, which is great. You have, as you mentioned before, a lot of those issues in terms of being able to develop data centers in areas that are tier one data center markets where there's access to high speed fiber. It's really hard to get approvals. It's really hard to get access to power.

 

So that's creating a limited supply in the top markets in the backdrop of all this demand from the mag seven for cloud based services for AI, and so what that means is, is really if you have a land bank that is permitted, that's approved, and has access to power, that's a tremendously valuable asset in today's market. And a lot of the REITs have that. So what you're seeing is the cloud based service providers, the Mag seven, they're going to the REITs to, you know, have them build out, you know, their, their demand needs in their development pipeline.

So that's mispriced growth. I would put healthcare in there as well, particularly assisted living, where again defensive demand, we know the population is aging, the number of people turning 80 is, you know, at all time record highs. A lot of the admits to assisted living, medically necessary. And when we look at areas that were hit the hardest by COVID, you mentioned hotels, but senior housing was hit very hard as well because people couldn't get admitted as a lot of those facilities were closed down during COVID. So we're just getting to a point where occupancy levels are reaching where they were pre COVID in senior housing and the expense picture is improving, meaning that we had a lot of health care worker wage inflation in 22 or 23 that was running like double digits, and now that's running single digits and it's resulting in same property NOI growth of assisted living properties of 20%. So really hard to find that growth and it seems like for both of those property types Wall Street analysts are a little bit behind the curve in terms of estimating the growth that's coming out of those property types.

 

But to your point on value, so some of the worst performers in the REIT market this year, you know, I mentioned data centers are one of the poor performers this year, but apartments, office, self storage. Those are areas that we're starting to get really interested in now because if you look at the implied cap rate of apartments, it's about six and a half percent right now.

 

Roth, Anthony

Okay.

 

Romano, Rick

Get the list of markets. So that means it's a lot cheaper on Wall Street than Main Street where we're seeing deals done in the 4%, 4.5% range in cap rates up to five. So you've got a tremendous cost basis advantage by entering listed apartment REITs today. And, you know, when you look at the revenue picture, we've had a lot of supply added in that space in the past few years, particularly as you mentioned the sunbelt.

 

But that supply really starts to temper in 26 and 27. It really starts to moderate because it was really hard to build stuff in the last few years because banks weren't lending. You had material costs, labor costs rising due to inflation. So that sets up really well for apartments in 26 and 27. So that's an area that we think if you're patient in the listed markets, you can do very well at this entry point.

 

Roth, Anthony

I wanna summarize what you said for a second and then I wanna try to summarize the theme if I could.

 

Romano, Rick

Sure.

 

Roth, Anthony

There are clearly some areas where there are some interesting trends developing senior living, one, the right kind of opportunities in the data center space, and I was surprised to actually hear from you right now that it's been a poor performing asset class this year because I thought that's where all the activity was, that's where all the action was, but it sounds like it's you know highly skilled endeavor to find the right property and the right asset and and actually monetize it given all the various factors that, that, that come into play. And then and then lastly, apartments.

 

The apartment space is interesting because in the multi family space you tend to be more levered to the short end of the curve, whereas people think of residential housing, I think in the homeownership market where you're lev lever to the center or longer under the curve and whatnot, and with the shorter end of the curve coming down I would imagine that's gonna be a pretty good tailwind as well as just supply demand picture has been really skewed I think overall in the market with a lack of supply. And then it's interesting to hear you say that the that swath from Phoenix all the way across to Charleston et cetera, which had been overbuilt. Perhaps maybe most of that process being absorbed and will start and there'll be an opportunity set there that'll start to become appealing. So those are the things that I'm hearing, but putting it all together, it seems like it's it's not a space for the faint of heart. I mean I really feel like it's in addition to the, the deal level activity or management that needs to occur in order to be successful at the deal level, just understanding the right asset types and the right geographies in this very highly complex space of commercial real estate is really pretty specialized activity and the fact that you guys do it nationally across so many different types is impressive but also sort of scary in and of itself.

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, so I think, you know, it it is a space that, you know, is highly specialized, so I think there's an advantage to being active in that space as a result and, and also being part of a fully integrated large commercial real estate platform. We're the 3rd largest platform in the world. So not only are we doing private equity real estate, we're doing private real estate debt, we're doing listed real estate. So having that scale and all the boots on the ground real estate's a local business at the end of the day, having access to all that information and data in real time, I I think is really important to be able to pick what are the right property types, where are the right geographies, where are things going in this sort of very diverse space of commercial real estate? Absolutely.

 

Roth, Anthony

So, when you think about the overall opportunity set, do you think that investors should be looking to try to differentiate within the REIT space, particular vehicles that have high high levels of focus?

 

Or less focus within a given risk band. In other words, do you think that the most effective way for an investor to tap into this opportunity set is to say, ok, I'm looking for a range of return which implies at certain risk and then allow the active manager to figure out, which opportunities are the most compelling or do you think that conversely or or or or or maybe orthogonally, investors say, look, I think that right now senior living is where it's at and that's where I wanna go I wanna go into a  REIT that's just senior living, and maybe even in, you know, the southern part of the country because that's where, you know, folks like to retire. How, how do you, what, what would you recommend for investors?

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, so I think it really depends on their level of sophistication for, I would say most investors who are not real estate experts. You know, having a real estate, listed real estate exposure in their portfolio gives them that dividend yield, so it gives them an income component like a bond.

 

You've got an equity like component as well. You've got, you know, as rates go up or rents go up, you've got that growth component. So I think investors should think about this as a hybrid between their stock and bond portfolio that can provide diversification for most investors. And then once you make that decision and allocation, you know, the investors that we talk to will typically be anywhere from, five to 10% type real estate allocation. But once you decide that then I think you can definitely add to your return by picking a manager who has been able to take advantage of some of the dispersion that we were talking about in geographies and property types, the return dispersion, the fundamental dispersion through active management, and then you could sort of enhance your return above and beyond the asset class return. So I would say with the rare exception of very sophisticated investors that that's probably the right path for them to take to get some good risk adjusted returns.

 

Roth, Anthony

And when you say in this context sophisticated investor I think that you're almost talking about an investor that can really develop a strong point of view on an asset by asset basis, right? Within a, within a type of real estate and a type of geography. And if you can't do that, really this is a space to rely on active management. And in a way, you know, the broader the better because if the active manager has the ability from a macro standpoint to identify which areas are gonna be the best ones, which can change pretty quickly, this is the kind of space where that level of active management, not just at the deal level, but even at the, you know, kind of the sub industry level could make a lot of sense.

 

Romano, Rick

And I think that's absolutely right that you would have to be, you know, pretty nimble, in that, you know, when you look at data centers, e.g., again, I go back to that, they outperformed the benchmark in 2023 and 2024, one of the worst performance in 2025.

 

So you have to really be nimble and be able to, you know, understand the nuances and relative valuations and what's driving those returns to if you're doing it on your own to be able to move around pretty quickly, like industrial, which you mentioned before, that was one of the worst performers last year in 2024, but this year it's one of the top performers. So I I think you would you would have to be knowledgeable, disciplined, and nimble.

 

Roth, Anthony

So, I'd like to spend a little bit more time on residential because it's the area that not only do we perhaps have the greatest amount of activity from our own client base, at Wilmington and M&T Bank where we have quite a few commercial real estate principles, but it's also, I think from the perspective of our wealth clients, an area that's the most intuitive, and they all participate in from the perspective of their own homes, obviously, which are not multi family, but there's still a view and a perspective.

 

So right now when you think about the, the commercial area of residential, which is the multi family, where the investment opportunities tend to be dependent on short term rates, not long term rates, where we're seeing a little bit of a slowing in the economy right now, but we do expect a reacceleration next year. And then we continue to see this real shortfall of supply on the national level for, for homes, where do you think multi family is gonna stack up in 2026 and do you think that those areas that had been out of favor in the sunbelt, again, sort of Phoenix across to Charleston et cetera, are they gonna come, come roaring back next year or do you think it's more a mixed picture from a geographic standpoint?

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, so multi family again, you know, you mentioned the shortages of housing, it's not just the US it's globally. So when you look at, you know, the opportunity set within apartments right now, we do like the cost basis that you're getting in at in the listed markets of six and a half percent implied capital rate. That's historically attractive relative to the private markets. You typically don't see that big of a disconnect. That's like a 20 to 30 % discount to private market value. So I think what the listed markets got concerned about or or some of the issues that you touched on, jobs growth is slowing, so is there going to be a further slowdown? Is there going to be a recession? Is that gonna impact what happens in multifamily? But also I think investors were expecting a multi family in 2nd and Q3, particularly in the sunbelt, a little bit more improvement in the revenue line than what the company's reported. So there was a little bit of disappointment in the pace of absorption and, and lease up going on in the sunbelt in particular.

 

We do really think that reverses, in 26 and 27 and pretty significantly. So you do in certain markets you have supply dropping off 50 % or 70 % as you get into 26 and 27.

 

So, with those demand trends really intact. So you do have the rent to own equation, very favorable towards rental. It's very expensive to own a home. You have to come up with a large down payment and like you said, that's a little bit more tethered to the long end, and the long end of the interest rate curve has been a bit more sticky, we do know the short end will be going down.

 

So, so I I think the other concern investors have about this space is a little bit focused on demographics. When you look at what historically has been the, the highest renter age group, 20 to 34 year olds, that population base isn't really growing that much. So there's concern about, you know, the propensity for people to rent because that age group is, you know, sort of flat.

 

Romano, Rick

What we are seeing though is that that age group, and the age group, after them, they are deferring decisions to get married. They're deferring decisions to have kids.

 

So that means that that sweet spot of sort of that renter cohort, the typical demographics is expanding. So you can't just look at 20 to 34s and say, ok, population isn't really growing, is that gonna be good for apartment demand? Probably not but you know what? The propensity to rent for people above that age is higher due to affordability due to deferred decisions on lifestyle. So we're really, you know, we're really excited about apartments for 26 and 27. It's got a lot of tailwinds and a really good cost basis.

 

Roth, Anthony

So let's talk a bit about that sector, apartments, multi family, et cetera, but let's focus in now instead of the sunbelt, let's talk a little bit about where our footprint is, which is to say northeast, Mid Atlantic primarily. What is your take on those particular regions?

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, so we are seeing in areas like New York City we're seeing rent growth. It's not that strong, but New York did about 2 %.

 

Roth, Anthony

That maybe in a whole nother story starting next year, right? With a new mayor. I don’t know

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah. Well, that's gonna be interesting to see, you know, what the impact is but you know right now trends are very strong there. Really hard to add supply. We're seeing some office conversions, but not really enough to offset demand. So you've got you know still rent growth in, in that market.

 

Washington DC has been interesting because you you had the overhang of the, you know, the government cuts earlier in the year due to doge. And so you did have some impact on employment there. And then you had the shutdown as well, which also, you know, caused a little bit of economic slowdown in, in the area. So that's been relatively strong for the first part of the year but has started to slow a bit. So I think it's it's a little bit different by each market. If you go to San Francisco, we're seeing 6% rent growth there, one of the strongest markets in the country.

 

So it's really dependent on where you see acceleration and jobs growth and limited supply that's gonna be where your best markets are and that right now that's San Francisco followed by, you know, some other urban markets like New York.

 

So, you know, we think it's really, you know, very market specific, but overall as you start to roll out a little further, we think the rising tide's gonna lift all boats and you're gonna see attractive markets really throughout the country.

 

Roth, Anthony

So let's just talk a little bit about the  REIT structure if you don't mind. You know, we have a lot of folks that are listening, I'm sure that are interested in your assessment of the assets, but probably they're less interested in structure because they own, you know, their own real estate partnerships. They run their own businesses et cetera.

 

They're all family owned assets et cetera, that's where their expertise are. Then we have a whole cadre of of listeners here that don't have that skill set and one of the things that we've brought to them over the years have been private market opportunities where they've gone into real estate funds that have been sort of sector specific. We did a, a warehouse one that was a home run in the past. We've done one with a great sponsor in the multi family space where we sort of, didn't get the vintage nailed unfortunately coming out of the pandemic in some of these sunbelt areas that got overbuilt.

 

Ttalk to us a little bit about if you could, you know, why an investor, you know, that maybe anybody short of actually being in the business and having their own very high conviction of views on particular deals, why would somebody prefer a REIT versus a private market in this space? I think that it it really behooves us given we've gotten you on the phone here to talk about the structure as well.

 

Romano, Rick

I think when you, when you think about reits, you've got a diversified menu of real estate to choose from. And if you invest in a listed  REIT fund, you get access to that. And when you look at the weightings of the property types for the  REITs, it's much easier to access, I would say some of those secular, non core growing property types like healthcare, like data centers. They're a big part of the listed  REIT footprint. So, for investors who maybe don't want to be tied to some of the more cyclical commercial real estate assets, which you see more so on the private side, it gives them an opportunity to really diversify their real estate exposure. The second point is liquidity. You get daily liquidity and, you know, you're getting access to real estate fundamentals, but you're also getting daily liquidity. And then beyond that, you're getting good corporate governance, alignment of interests. All of these are internally managed, meaning that, you know, you get the  REIT assets as you invest in a REIT, you get the income streams from those assets.

 

But the management team is fully integrated into the  REIT, so any development profits that are done by the  REIT are captured for you as the shareholder. Any management fees that the real estate company generates are captured by you as revenue as a shareholder. So some of the structures in private, you know, don't have that, that's where the sponsor is getting management fees, they're getting development fees, promoted interests. So  REITs, you know,  REITs have JVs where they're getting promoted interests and the shareholder of a  REIT is participating in that. So you get to sort of wear that hat a little bit too, which is nice to get these other revenue streams in alignment of interest. So I think the diversification, the access to all these different property types, the liquidity.

 

And then the, you know, the alignment of interest with some of these other revenue streams are really interesting to think about if you're thinking about investing in real estate and  REITs in particular.

 

Roth, Anthony

Thanks for that. That's a really help helpful and we at Wilmington Trust, we have  REITs in our best thinking portfolios and they've done well for many years, so I do think that it's an important wrapper, if you will, for that economic exposure, and I think that tapping into the expertise of the really the commercial real estate across all those sectors that the  REIT brings is pretty powerful. What about the, the, the mismatch between the potential liquidity of the underlying assets and the liquidity of the  REIT itself and and the idea that that mismatch could cause discounts in the the value of the REIT interest relative to the long term value of the underlying holding if in fact everyone ran for the exits and and so on and so forth? How how how often do you do you see those kinds of issues come up and do you have a line of credit to sort of mitigate those or how do you handle those?

 

Romano, Rick

So for the, the  REITs that we're investing in, they're all listed and very liquid and traded on the stock exchanges. So the liquidity is provided really in the secondary market. So, you know, we don't have to worry about relying on for example, REIT mutual funds or  REIT single client accounts that were, we have that we manage, the liquidity is really provided by the market, so we don't have to worry about providing that through a line of credit or any structure like that. So I think that's good. To your point.

 

Roth, Anthony

Have you ever had scenarios where the holders of those public market securities soured on the asset class and then all of a sudden you've got to start to sell the underlying assets that are more liquid?

 

Romano, Rick

Ours are all liquids, so we're investing in like Well Tower, which is a listed, you know, New York Stock Exchange Traded. So we would sell the shares of Well Tower to meet the redemption.

 

Roth, Anthony

I'm thinking about a level deep, one level down and you're talking about the actual fund of  REITs essentially.

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, but there are private  REITs that have that, you know, that, that have that, you know, you've seen where they're open and then all of a sudden they have redemptions and they have to sell assets to meet those redemptions. Like that's more, you know, some of the private  REIT sponsors that are doing that cause they're they're buying buildings and not investing in liquid stocks so because we have the liquidity, we're able to do that. But to your point, you do get big disconnects, you know, in the listed companies, right? In the traded  REITs, you do get big disconnects in their private market value and their share price because you've got so many constituents out there buying and selling shares every day, they might not be sophisticated investors, it could be hedge funds, generalist investors, mom and pop buying these shares. So that creates opportunity and disconnects versus the real estate value of the underlying  REIT.

 

And that's the, you know, situation I was describing in apartments where they're trading at such a big discount, the private market value right now, whereas you do have hedge funds and generalists worried about the jobs picture and revenue growth, you know, maybe not recovering as quickly as they had hoped.

 

Roth, Anthony

So you can capture that value very quickly actually by buying those discounted assets or those discounted securities relative to the underlying assets.

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, and, you know, you're looking for reversion back to the real estate value, back to the net asset value of the real estate of that company, and areas like apartments which historically have traded very close to NAV and are now at a 20 or 30% discount to NAV. That's a, you know, pretty attractive opportunity if you're a patient investor.

 

Roth, Anthony

Yeah, interesting. You know real estate often is thought of as a hard asset, a good inflation hedge.

 

And it's hard to say exactly what the future will hold for inflation, of course. I think that the consensus is that maybe we're in a new environment where inflation itself will be more volatile and be a little higher than it has been. We actually have a different view at Wilmington Trust. We think that we are gonna see consistent disinflation, particularly with the impact of AI and productivity and the shrinking demographics of the country that overcapacity is much more likely to be a problem going forward than the lack of supply for most things. But having said that, if we do have inflation, how do you think  REITs have done as an inflation hedge over the years? Do you think that there's been any inverse correlation, if you will or or not really?

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, so typically they have done well. When you look at some of the leases, whether it's like retail or office leases, some of those leases embedded in the lease structure have rent bumps tied directly to CPI, so that gives you inflation built inflation protection in those leases, so that's been good. And then when you have inflation, the, the cost to build goes up, and when the cost of build goes up, a lot of times that means that, you know it's gonna not gonna be economically viable to build, and that means there's less supply. So that's typically really good for existing landlords because they have an opportunity now to get pricing power when they have, you know, inflationary pricing power because there's not a lot of supply, not a lot of choices for tenants, so that's typically good.

And usually the the shorter lease durations like apartments, like hotels, self storage, they can adjust their pricing the quickest to inflationary pressures and they've been able to do that in the past and get some pricing power going. So that's been historically pretty attractive. During the most recent bout of inflation because it was hyper inflation and it was over such a short period of time. It took a little bit of a while for REITs to catch up and reset with their rent growth.

 

Roth, Anthony

I want to summarize quickly what I think some of the key takeaways are and give you the last word Rick, on things that I may leave that Sefrom the summary. I think that really there's two things that I I would point to for listeners that are really critical. One is that because the real estate space is so complex and so varied within the different sub areas of real estate and the opportunity set changes so quickly based on lots of factors both in the, in the financial economy and the real economy, being able to have a expert team tactically allocating among those opportunities on a very active basis makes a lot of sense. That's one.

 

Then I would say that, number two, we're in an area, we're in a part of the cycle where, of course, not every geography and every real estate type is gonna excel, but we do expect to see with dropping rates, which almost all commercial cap rates are tied to the front end of the curve, so with dropping rates to the front end of the curve and with an economic reacceleration next year, we should be in an environment that should be very favorable to real estate. So it's it's a good time which is why we didn't want to do this episode right now to remind clients on the diversification benefits and the long term returns that real estate and real estate structured through, high quality  REIT managers can, can accomplish. So for me, those are the key takeaways of the conversation and I wanted to see if you wanted to maybe add anything that I may have left out.

 

Romano, Rick

The only thing I would add is that the other thing I think that's attractive right now as an entry point is that the relative value versus general equities is historically attractive. So one of the things that we look at is the price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 divided by the priced earnings ratio of the  REIT market and today that sits at 1.3 times and we've only seen that level twice since the GFC. It was 1.7 in the Q3 2009 and in a forward twelve months after that you saw a significant outperformance of  REIT that were up over a hundred percent. S&P was up a lot too, was up about 50%. But significant outperformance from that relative evaluation level. Then we saw it again during COVID where it hit 1.2 and then on a twelve month forward basis, we saw a  REITs up 41% versus the S&P of 29%.

 

So strong nominal returns from this relative valuation historically, but also very strong relative returns because rates have been an area that over the past five years going on six, they've underperformed the S&P 500 pretty significantly and investors that are a little bit worried about their tech allocations, their S&P 500 exposures and valuations, I think what we're seeing is that they're looking at areas of value in the market and  REITs definitely set up as one of those for 2026.

 

Roth, Anthony

Yeah, that's a really interesting ratio that you cited at the end, the relative forward price to earnings ratio of the S&P over  REITs. So normally it would be below one, I suppose what you're saying.

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, typically it's, just below one, you know, somewhere around .9 to one typically.

 

Roth, Anthony

And at 1.3, it's not 1.7, but it's still fairly elevated. I mean is that like a two standard deviation type of spot to be in?

 

Romano, Rick

Yeah, that, that is. You know, we did see something like that. The last time we saw it was during COVID, you know, 20 % from par basically above, so.

 

Roth, Anthony

Well, great, great opportunity set, great conversation. Thank you so much, Rick Romano from PGYM. Great to have you here.

 

Rick Romano

Thank you. Really appreciate the time today.

 

Roth, Anthony

And, want to remind everybody, WilmingtonTrust.com for a full roundup of all of our past podcasts and for all of our current thought leadership, our capital market forecast for 2026 will be released, I believe on 5 January. So look out for that as well and thank you all for listening. Happy holidays. 

 

 

 

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Rick Romano
Global Head and CIO
PGIM Real Estate Securities

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