The U.S. push to bring manufacturing back home through tariffs could undo decades of global economic integration. While the goal is to revive domestic production and jobs, the reality is more complex. Automation—not offshoring—has driven much of the job losses in recent years, and overcoming high labor costs remains a major hurdle.

For investors, these dynamics raise the question: How will tariffs and supply chain realignment alter cost structures and margins across sectors—and which industries stand to gain or lose?

Fewer workers and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence are reshaping the workforce in unpredictable ways. If AI complements jobs instead of replacing them, it could fuel productivity and economic growth, opening new investment opportunities across technology, advanced manufacturing, and even sectors like health care and financials.

The question for investors is: Can AI and automation offset a shrinking workforce enough to sustain corporate earnings growth?

The U.S.’s rising mountain of government debt poses big challenges to the economy and the markets. There are two potential counterweights that could reshape the outlook: stronger-than-expected productivity gains and the growing influence of stablecoins, which may create new demand for U.S. Treasury securities.

The question remains: Can rising productivity bend the curve on the U.S. debt trajectory, and what does it mean for interest rates and the dollar?

We expect slowing economic growth to help ease inflation, giving the Federal Reserve room to continue cutting interest rates. While last year’s tariffs caused a temporary spike in prices, we expect that effect to fade as consumers reduce their spending. The latter, in turn, should exert downward pressure on demand for services. Investors will need to balance caution with creativity, diversifying and seeking opportunities in technology, industrials, and nontraditional asset classes.

For investors, the pressing question is: How could policy and innovation converge to create both opportunity and risk in the year ahead?